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Friday, August 26, 2011

Ruh Roh, Hraggy. Brahd Shience!

See now the imminent storm to the eastern coast.

The importance of this hurricane Irene isn't its speed. It's not that this is the umpteenth storm of the year. It's just that it's bearing down on a raking path through some of the most populated portion of our nation. That's it.

This is not a notable climate event.

This is weather. Just like this long hot spell for us (we missed the record, darn it. Who wants the silver? Bah!), is just weather.

Just like that long icy period that we had at the end of January here in north Texas was just... weather.

I'm not a climatologist*, but I've taken Research Methods, and I've taken Statistics, and outliers happen. We tend to throw them out.

Trying to take anecdotes and turn them to prove your personal theories on climate is NOT GOOD SCIENCE, people.

______________________
*It's amazing how many folks do tend to want to argue with them that are. I'll listen, but really, if your argument is based on anecdotes, your science ain't up to snuff, y'know?

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10 Comments:

At Friday, August 26, 2011 8:10:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In watching (and ducking) the "Great Climate Debates" of the past decade, I'm always amused by how certain things are "weather" and others are "climate change!!!!! Bad humans bad bad!!!"

Now, if Hurricane Irene parked over the eastern Carolinas for, oh, the next 30-50 years, then a hurricane will become climate. Of course, we'll probably have a lot of other things to worry about if that were to happen.

LittleRed1

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 8:35:00 AM, Blogger Larry said...

Don't forget the earthquake we just had out here. TEOTWAWKI for sure! ;)

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 10:02:00 AM, Blogger Matt G said...

Why not? Danny Glover taught us that global warming causes earthquakes.

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 11:45:00 AM, Anonymous Blackwing1 said...

Come on, Mr. G. Don't you know that the plural of "anecdotes" is data?

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 1:18:00 PM, Blogger Rabbit said...

I still have a bumper sticker saved away that says "Let the bastards freeze in the dark".

I know I'll always be able to display it.

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 6:08:00 PM, Blogger Old NFO said...

Sigh... Idjits everywhere!!!

 
At Monday, August 29, 2011 5:53:00 AM, Blogger Ted said...

"The plural of 'anecdote' is not 'data'."

 
At Monday, August 29, 2011 7:42:00 AM, Anonymous Evyl Robot Michael said...

So much of it is no kind of science at all. It's just agenda driven politics. Science can be tested using scientific method and is never settled. Beware the "scientist" that asserts that an untestable concept is settled and proven to be fact.

 
At Thursday, September 01, 2011 7:26:00 AM, Blogger Tam said...

There's science and then there's $cience.

There's way too much of the latter around these days.

"And what would you like my findings to be, Mr. Grantwriter?"

 
At Sunday, September 25, 2011 12:58:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unfortunately you can still map the outliers and the rate and severity of the outliers. You throw them out for the basis of short term modeling. However long term they are used for analysis. Also you'll find big buisness are the ones with a much greater imperitive and proven track record of fudging data for economic and political gain over scientists.

 

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